Adapting to climate change
The topic of climate change is not a new one for farmers; adapting to change in climate has always been a part of the agricultural industry.
Climate change is a greater threat to the unprepared. Preparation has to be more in the mind initially, than on the ground. Rural producers have to decide how they are going to adapt to the changing circumstances in which they find themselves.
In talking climate change, it is increased variability that will require as much adaptation, as the changing temperatures or rainfall.
There will be a focus on the plant types that are best adapted to the new conditions that climate change will bring. There will be new farming systems developed that are consistent with the new conditions. Just as bringing European farming systems to Australia failed, so some of the existing successful farming systems will no longer remain. Perennial cropping may take over from annual cropping in some areas. Some people are currently growing annual crops in a perennial environment. As the climate continues to change, these crops will fail instead of struggling as they currently do. Rising fuel costs may be another reason why perennial crops become the best option for some.
If global warming is going to impact on temperature and rainfall patterns the way it is predicted, then having adequate carbon in the soil is going to be even more critical for financial survival.
Climate Variability
The critical element of climate for agriculture is the how climate change may affect climate variability. A long run of El Nino events, for example, could have a much larger, immediate and more permanent affect on agriculture than a gradual wetting and drying.
The behaviour of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is critical in any consideration of this issue. The cycling times time between El Nino and La Nina appear to have decreased from 7.5 years in mid 1880's to around 4.9 currently. There is some indication that this trend towards shortened cycles is continuing.
Extensive Grazing
While sharing many of the same issues as grains, assessing the impacts of atmospheric changes on the grazing industry is complicated by the fact that they operate on animals directly as well as the pastures they graze, which are generally more complex plant communities than crops.
If carbon dioxide fertilisation was effectively cancelled out by temperature increases, rainfall would become the main determinant of pasture growth. Although changes in rainfall between years causes considerable stresses and strains in the extensive grazing industry, past history shows that it is changes in the inter decadal oscillation that destroys businesses and resource bases. This suggests that extensive grazing is much more vulnerable to changes in the shape of Australia's climate than solely changes in rainfall."
To download a PDF version of Chapter 18 Adapting to Climate Change of "Carbon Grazing - the missing link" (file size 731Kb), click on the highlighted chapter heading.
To purchase a hard copy version of "Carbon Grazing - the missing link" click on the highlighted book title.